Wales host Croatia on Sunday in a match they must win to have a realistic chance of qualifying for Euro 2024.
Wales are fourth in Group D with three games left, three points behind World Cup semi-finalists Croatia in second.
With only the top two teams qualifying automatically, Wales need to win all three of their matches or hope leaders Turkey or Croatia drop points.
“We know what’s required of us, what we have to do,” said Ben Davies, Wales captain in Aaron Ramsey’s absence.
“We knew what we were coming into before this camp. We all knew that three wins was what we were targeting so from our standpoint it hasn’t changed.
“So three big games and it starts with a tough one against Croatia. They’re a world-class team, they’ve shown that for a long time now with a lot of the same players.
“But that doesn’t mean they’re unbeatable. We have to show them a lot of respect for the quality they’ve got, but we have to go in believing we can get a result and we’ve been working all week building up to that.”
As top seeds, Croatia will be expected to beat Armenia and bottom side Latvia next month. Two victories in those games would give them 16 points, meaning a point against Wales would be enough to see them finish above Robert Page’s men.
If Wales win all three of their remaining games, though, they would finish on 16 points and above Croatia because of a superior head-to-head record, having drawn 1-1 with them in Split in March.
A draw or defeat against Croatia on Sunday would effectively end Wales’ hopes of qualifying automatically before their final two games against Armenia and Turkey next month.
If Wales do miss out on the top two, their only remaining route to Euro 2024 would be the play-offs in March.
A disappointing campaign so far has put manager Page under pressure, with criticism from fans and pundits particularly fierce after June’s back-to-back defeats by Armenia and Turkey.
Football Association of Wales (FAW) chief executive Noel Mooney has said the governing body will not make any “knee-jerk” decisions over Page’s future, but added the team must keep winning games.
Captain Davies has described those comments as “not helpful”, while Page says he is ignoring the “noise” of speculation about his future.
Team news
Wales have no new injury concerns since winger Wes Burns was forced to return to his club side Ipswich Town after damaging his shoulder during Wednesday’s 4-0 friendly win over Gibraltar.
Wales were already without regular captain Ramsey, who will be out for a minimum of eight to 10 weeks with a ruptured tendon in his knee.
As well as missing Sunday’s match against Croatia, Ramsey will be unavailable for the final two matches of Wales’ qualifying campaign against Armenia and Turkey in November.
Tottenham forward Brennan Johnson will also be absent against Croatia, though his hamstring injury is not thought to be serious.
Bournemouth defender Chris Mepham is available after recovering from a knock.
Croatia have a long list of injuries, particularly in attacking positions.
Forwards Bruno Petkovic, Mislav Orsic and Andre Kramaric are all ruled out, as is Spurs winger Ivan Perisic.
Match facts
- Wales have won none of their seven previous matches against Croatia (three draws, four defeats), drawing 1-1 in this European Championship qualifying campaign.
- Croatia are unbeaten in their two previous away games against Wales, winning a World Cup qualifier 2-1 in March 2013 and drawing 1-1 in October 2019 in a Euros qualifier.
- Wales lost their last home qualifying game 2-4 against Armenia. They have not lost back-to-back such matches since September 2013 (against Croatia and Serbia in qualifying for the 2014 World Cup), while they last lost consecutive home matches in a European Championship qualifying campaign in March 2011 (against Bulgaria and England).
- Croatia have won each of their past five away qualifying matches for major tournaments by an aggregate score of 14-1 – their longest winning run in away qualifying matches.
- Wales have won their past two matches in all competitions, winning 2-0 against Latvia in a European Championship qualifier and 4-0 against Gibraltar in a friendly. They have not won three games in a row since a run of four between November 2019 and September 2020.
- Croatia had 17 shots against Turkey last time out, their highest total in a game without scoring since a 1-0 loss to Portugal at Euro 2016 (also 17). The last time they failed to score in back-to-back qualifying matches was in September 2015.
- Three of Wales’ four goals in their victory over Gibraltar were headed goals, one scored by Ben Davies and two by Kieffer Moore. Eight of Moore’s 12 Wales goals have been headers, accounting for 53% of their headed goals since Moore’s debut in September 2019 (eight out of 15).
- Daniel James assisted two goals in Wales’ 4-0 win over Gibraltar, with six of his eight assists for the national team coming for goals scored by Kieffer Moore. Across club and country for Leeds and Wales, James has assisted six goals in his past eight appearances.
Source : BBC
